Fibonacci to markets: sorry, your time is up.

This is it folks, the end of the rally, today is the peak.

Here's why, just a couple of charts, the first one key, the second just to show how weak other markets are.

Complacency abounds, the bulls appear to believe clear blue skies lie ahead, when all I see are storms.

Good luck.

Checkpoint 1 : Armstrongs 2015.75

Recently we discussed magnitude of expected financial events and in our 20-year poll, one of the options for date prediction for a WTFUC event was that of Martin Armstrong's 2015.75. Now that date (September) has come and gone I wanted to take a quick snapshot of the results and make a few comments.

Any of the 34 respondents who voted for this option were ... wrong. And I say this not to be narky - in fact I'm very glad last months events did not pan out the way I described in my WTFUC definition. The entire point of the original article (and the 20-year poll) was to help bring discussion to the mental models we carry around with us i.e. an examination of our expectations and time-frames for all things financial. Depending on the settings on your computer the poll will allow you to change your vote.

Regarding the date expressed in Armstrong's economic confidence model (ECM), I'm not entirely sure what to make of it (or his renewed focus on Real Estate for that matter), I always thought the ECM was referring to confidence in government/public sector. I get the impression the turning point will be the focus of quite a good many follow-up articles in the years to come with the benefit of hindsight. In fairness it is not realistic to expect certain events on a very specific slice of time, but this gets us back to the discussion on time frames and relativity. My overall point is that predictions are useless without tests and context for those models. I cringe every time I read a call for COMEX DEFAULT, DERIVATIVES COLLAPSE or Bullion Bank IMPLOSION. The big problem is none of these events have transpired on the purported time frame and that should be a red flag for any continued predictions from the same folk. From a book recently read - I love this paragraph because the author could easily be talking about most precious metals blogs.
"... This desire for complete seamless explanation infests most examples of crank science. When somebody mails me their explanation of the architecture of the Universe derived from the geometry of the Great Pyramid, or the cipher of the Kabbalah, it will usually display a number of features: it will be entirely a work of explanation; there will be no predictions, no tests of its correctness; and nothing lies beyond its encompass. It is not the beginning of any research programme. Beyond refutation, it is always the last word."

The world is an incredibly complex place and it is beneath us to describe it in simple terms. Together, let's keep searching for the right model of gold and international finance. But let's judge and discard models which don't give specific predictions and which fail to explain the significance of the events in the context of their readership.

Next checkpoint is at the end of 2019, let's see what happens over the next 3 years. --Warren