Screwtape responds to Brother John F

With thanks to reader, Duggo, my attention has been drawn to the video-blog of a certain Brother John F. I considered sincerely the idea of concocting a well-thought out, fact-based response to this.

But. in the end, it seems pretty obvious that the best response is to just simply post Mr BJF's video here and let our readers draw their own conclusions about the coherence of the information contained therein.

It is as unhinged as you might expect it to be.



Thank you, Brother John F. You have added much ammunition to my thesis that the silverogosphere is a fanatical, self-serving organism that seeks to deliver a perma-bullish analysis to a naive investing public.

You should be truly, truly, ashamed of yourself. Now go to your room.

JdA

57 comments:

Warren James said...

I'm a real person!! I really am.
Just scroll down a bit further on the 'about us page' you'll see my photo.

Sheesh, Stephanie the Mod, Turd, now Brother John, no one is listening. This may leave me slightly scarred.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

@Warren: it's not the silverogosphere's fault that you have such an unconvincing name. Have you considered changing it to ' Bob Jones'? Or 'Marvin Sparkledust'?

Just a thought...

David said...

I just went through the site myself. I saw nothing that proves any of your commentary. I did however see a multitude of egregious claims and name calling being done by the posters here.

I may not agree with everything BrotherJohnF has said, but his work is very thorough, and he knows the PM market extremely well.

Calling rational well stated and concise people with open positions cultish is rather interesting.

Cultish behavior indicates a following of a belief without cross discussion and rational thought. This group certainly seems to fit this description when critiquing the Silver Market. The Silver Market folks however have a variety of cross talk, rational discussions and obviously are open to criticism. If none of that were true, I wouldn't be here giving your sad hate filled blog traffic.

Feel free to reply, I would hate for anyone to think I'm a Cult member that would disregard anything you have to say.

Warren James said...

@David, egregious claims?? Fair enough, your statement is directly crafted to bait or get my goat, you got mine ...

PLEASE BE MY GUEST AND DEBUNK MY DATABASE RESEARCH. No really, go ahead. Pick it apart, inch by inch. Let me know which of my conclusions about SLV are egregious and ill-founded, explain to us which of our posts are hate-filled, and then either take back your generalization or explain to me how my 700+ hours hours of solid industry research went astray somehow.

BullionBars Datbase

Marks said...

Personally, I prefer the "attempt here to shift our focus to objective, rational research".

Provoking those in the silverblogosphere is not likely to make this board more useful, as we will likely have more garbage posts to wade through.

Marks said...

@Warren
Could you please provide some color on your comment below, what is goldmoney's concern regarding the sharing of their bar lists...?

Important note: Due to 2012 Q3 restrictions introduced by Goldmoney around the sharing and redistribution of Goldmoney bar lists, we cannot (at this time) share any Goldmoney bars lists published after mid-2012.

Warren James said...

@Marks - good point. We did at least discuss this internally but felt we must at least have an official reply. Also it's partially a test to explore the links to social media manipulation - a honeypot if you will, we're still interested in mapping the entire spectrum as a side project. If we understand it correctly then WB was just the tip of the iceberg.

So in advance, deep apologies to our readership for this brief interlude. I just find it incredibly frustrating that the critics can cherry-pick their evidence to support their own views, I guess it is human nature. The irony is that we do aim here to cross-challenge and test our own views and assumptions. David's comment above is actually typical of a particular type of argument which deliberately muddies the water by applying an accusation which is the opposite of what is true. But typically they win in the Google searches if the word saturation is high enough.

Anyone wondering what I'm talking about, here's an interesting (possibly fictional) story I got forwarded recently, which talks a bit on the science of Shillomatics link.

But marks, absolutely, the old expression is entirely apt: "Don't argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience". I've got a lot more database processing to get on with.

Also, just saw your question about the Goldmoney source files, here's the story: In the 30 September 2012 issue of the Goldmoney bar lists, they added several new vaults - mainly Brinks in Canada, Rhenus in Zurich. What used to be a public page, was now restricted to requiring a 'Verified Goldmoney Account' to view. Not only that, but they now have a legal 'I agree' checkbox which requires the account holder to agree not to share/redistribute the documents.

We weren't sure of the reasons for their move, especially since it was a complete 180 degree turn from their normal procedure - but I think I figured it out - the Brinks vault document contains a lot of sensitive information such as floor location and other details which I understand they would not wish to have as a public document. My guess is that Goldmoney realized they could not legitimately have these as a public document, and hence the move.

It's frustrating because it means I can use the data but not put it in the cloud archive like I have with all the other files (otherwise they could sue me for damages). It also prevents me from publishing any detailed goldmoney-related material like I did with SLV Database 4.

Best regards,
Warren James
Brisbane, Australia
+61416503339
(real person)

Gavin said...

Screwtape, thanks for being a sober source of PM information. You are doing us all a favor, whether we know it now or not.

Marks said...

@Warren
Is there a way for you to delete/filter out the irrelevant, sensitive info from your database, while leaving the bar#, location, and other relevant data?
"the Brinks vault document contains a lot of sensitive information such as floor location and other details"
If so, let me know, and I will attempt to have goldmoney allow you to publish just the "insensitive" data/info you need.

Warren James said...

@Marks, oh wow - you would intercede on our behalf? I'm impressed.

The database does already strip most of the data which is non-essential - although we do keep 'Lot Number' information as it may be relevant to future studies. In theory I could supply (to the public archive) my own stripped-down version of the document, but it is the blanket restriction which is tricky to bypass. i.e. part of the value of the archive is the raw document which is the unadulterated historical record, which may or may not be of value to future generations of gold researchers.

Bron Suchecki and I actually discussed this last week - one of the best proposed solutions is to publish some kind of 'Bar List Standard' which the vault industry could adhere to, or ask Brinks to adjust their format - one output for internal use, another for external/public.

But if I had special written permission from Goldmoney to do specific types of research then this would absolutely help. The issue is legal, not mechanical - so currently I've shelved it in deference of other important stuff like completing the Julius Baer data import filter and the work on Dark Bullion.

My assumption on the Goldmoney data is that I'm allowed to publish results which work at an aggregate level, but not on an individual data row. If you can help in any way, it would certainly be greatly appreciated.

Kid Dynamite said...

Brother John asks:

"why do we have all these shady characters" ?!?!!?

indeed! Ironically, he isn't looking in the mirror... that is precisely the question Screwtape has tried to answer! the answer is easy: these silver proselytizer profit from their massive confirmation bias echo-chamber: they site each other, create truth from repetition, and us it to sell you news letters, beg you for donations so that they can continue to tell you what you want to hear, and even SELL you the metal that they say is so impossibly scarce!

I love it whenever one of the silver-ogosphere authors says "I got lots of requests to talk about this"... that means the minions are starting to ask questions and need to be re-assured... re-load the confirmation bias!

I don't want to argue if silver 2011 was a "bubble" - it's a stupid semantic argument. one thing is a fact: there was a bubble of gross ignorance and blatant misinformation (spread by repetition on the blogs) which founded impossibly false theses, and which no one who was based in reality should have been surprised didn't reflect reality.

duggo said...

When you become a Silver stacker you become selectively blind and deaf. I have now sold my Silver and have become aware of the World around me once more.
I have even become a follower of FOFOA but not with a closed mind this time. Only a Silver stacker knows how to have a really closed mind.

BrotherJohn and similar sites never seem to remember their past pronouncements on the astronomic price that Silver is going to. They never return to their previous posts and analyse why they were wrong.

BrotherJohn covers himself by using graphs a lot. After a long analysis of the charts he always concludes by saying the price will either go up or down. A complete prevarication.

Silver sites and their authors are continually waging war against the "evil empire" of dastardly bankers and corrupt politicians and officials. Only the Silver stackers are truly aware of the elite's evil plans for World domination.

Silver is their "Silver Bullet" that will bring peace and harmony to a wicked corrupt World. Everyone will live in a Utopian paradise when Silver eventually regains it's rightful place at the right hand of God.

The reason I say the "right hand of God" is because most Silver blogs seem to be run by religious fantasists.

Amen

Louis Cypher said...

Jeanne,
I am pleased you removed the "connect the dots" blurb under our banner otherwise I would be unaware of the "Prezmonk" skilled analysis.
Obviously a man of letters.
Let's make him an offer. I am thinking PR(opaganda) with dotted line reporting to the big man.
Thoughts?

milamber said...

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."

John Adams, 'Argument in Defense of the Soldiers in the Boston Massacre Trials,' December 1770
US diplomat & politician (1735 - 1826)

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/3235.html

Milamber

(figured I would use one of my favorite quotes to sub comments instead of just subbing comments)

mr pinnion said...

"They say there five prosimions...You tell me what that means"
"THINK TANKS, and James BOND-YNESS, really"
"kinda makes you wonder..."

Excellent.
If BJ grows a sense of humour (a whacky one), it will at least answer a few of his questions.

Regards
Ozzy

Brotherjohnf said...

It is truly reassuring that the diligent protectors of the interests of the blind and gullible silver stackers, known as the prosimians, have seen fit to bestow upon us their copious collections of insight into, and data about the silver markets.

For what do we owe this honor? Surely the tiny 5 billion dollar yearly demand of silver coins and bars must represent a crowd of investors so great and deluded that out of the goodness of their hearts, and at great personal sacrifice to themselves, the prosimians have undertaken this task.

Alongside the Jon Nadlers and Jeffrey Christians of this world, the prosimians of the screwtape files have no other motive than to protect the ignorant and gullible investing public from the machinations of the evil silverblogosphere. That’s why they have seen fit to ignore other minor and annoying abuses such as the quadrillion dollar derivatives scams and MF Global.

Just like the stalwarts at the SEC who when taking valuable time off from combing the internet for new and interesting types of pornography, manage to nab the notorious pump and dump scammers operating out of their mother’s basements, but seemingly can’t get a bead on that slippery Corzine and his vaporized billions. Or who manage to jail Martha Stewart for 64k in stock trades but never seem to find any wrongdoing as insiders continue to loot trillions from public companies.

Gentlemen, you have succeeded in one thing for certain; that of making yourselves a laughingstock in the silver community. Now go find some real bad guys. Oops, I’m sorry, that might offend your handlers ;-)

victorthecleaner said...


silverbugs,

you are making a fundamental mistake by ignoring macro.

In the 1970s, the rest of the world (ROW) needed to export goods into the US and earn dollars because they had to pay for their oil. They had to add to their dollar reserves. The inflation in the the 1970s was worldwide and was driven by rising commodity prices. Owning silver, mining stocks, futures etc. was profitable.

The 2010s are different. The ROW has stopped accumulating dollars in a systematic way. The inflation in the 2010s will be limited to the countries of the dollar block and will be caused by the declining role of the dollar as an international reserve. It will be driven by a declining dollar rather than by increasing commodity prices (think about it - that's a huge difference!). Silver, mining stocks and precious metals derivatives will be dead in the water.

You are doing your followers a huge disservice. They will eventually have to line up for food and barter their silver coins for useful items while the powers of the new financial order (Europe, OPEC, China) reinstall gold as the primary international reserve and take the gold/silver ratio beyond 1000:1.

Look at whom they push their "silver investments" to by invoking fear and greed: it's the little people. Look who's coolly holding onto their gold (and not talking much about it): Europe, OPEC, China, the ultra wealthy in all countries. Who are the weak hands in this game, and who are the strong ones?

Forget it. Stacking silver is a suckers' game. All the Max Kaiser silver coins and thousands of tons of silverware will start to circulate when people get hungry while the gold lies very still and the ECB auctions off a pathetic 10 tons and gets some E20000 per ounce for it, setting the price for the new world order).

On whose side do you want to be when the SHTF?

Victor

GM Jenkins said...

Thanks for stopping by, Brother John.

You write:
"stalwarts at the SEC who when taking valuable time off from combing the internet for new and interesting types of pornography, manage to nab the notorious pump and dump scammers operating out of their mother’s basements, but seemingly can’t get a bead on that slippery Corzine and his vaporized billions. Or who manage to jail Martha Stewart for 64k in stock trades but never seem to find any wrongdoing as insiders continue to loot trillions from public companies."

Well put. I'd like to see Corzine get the punishment he deserves. Although at Screwtape we don't agree about everything (case in point: just this weekend I posted my strong objections to JdA's "silver bubble" pronouncement), one thing we all share (to my knowledge, anyway) is a strong contempt for the pervasive corruption and ingrained parasitism of the financial and political classes, as well as their feckless and/or venal enablers in "regulatory" space.

All that is no reason to give PM blogs a free pass for their corruption and folly. An example: remember when the premium on PSLV (in which I have recently opened a position) was shooting well past 30%? There was a lot of idiocy in the PM blogs about how that meant there was a silver shortage. That occasioned our most popular post to date, where erstwhile contributor Brian O'Flanagan explained how fatuous the idea really was in the face of so much contrary evidence. But amazingly, even a director at Sprott Asset Management played along, saying in an interview (watch here at 3:00 http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip597818) "some very strange things have been happening in the silver market … the premium in our trust is 30% … lease rates turn negative … classic sign of shortage." Sure enough, any impressionable dupe who bought into PSLV at that point soon got hit for a 25% loss as soon as Sprott did the obvious and announced a secondary offering.

You do yourself and your reputation no favors by ascribing malice and conspiracy to simple contrarian viewpoints. I don't think your position--that physical silver is a really good investment right now--is so weak that it needs those kinds of tactics to protect it from scrutiny.

milamber said...

@ VtC,

Thought you would be interested in this (unless you have already seen it):

Dennis Santiago: Placement Considerations for Large Deposits in Banks for Major Counterparties

"The total sum of large, block deposits being placed by counterparties in U.S. banks have been on the rise for several years. Since 2008, these deposits in U.S. banks have grown by $2 trillion, representing a substantial amount of Main Street capital made idle in the economy. Of this amount, roughly $940 billion went into investments in U.S. treasury and agency securities fueling the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing process now in its third wave.

The capital that migrated into deposits between 2008 and 2012 flowed almost exclusively into a very small number of the largest U.S. banks (those with $65 billion or more in assets). Indeed, total deposits at smaller banks comprising the bulk of the more than 7,800 FDIC-certified banks remained largely unchanged. This occurred even as the too-big-to-fail banks suffered the turmoil and risk that necessitates their filing Large Complex Institution Resolution Plans to comply with the Dodd-Frank Act. Why? "

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

Back to work...

Milamber

Louis Cypher said...

@BJ,
Let me help you out seeing as you appear to be having some tech difficulties between the keyboard and chair.

http://bit.ly/S9he88

Here is another one to answer your questions
http://bit.ly/S9hyE5

another
http://bit.ly/S9hPGZ

and more
http://bit.ly/S9imJ9

Let me know if I can be of further assistance.

Lou

Jeanne d'Arc said...

@BJF

You don't seem to be able to accept or understand that someone can have a bearish view of silver without being a paid shill. Or that silver bulls don't necessarily always act with complete integrity. So you obfuscate, and you misrepresent, and you try to put us in a box. You're not the first, and you won't be the last: read this.

But I'm afraid you're doomed to failure with that endeavour. You see, the reason that Screwtape is such a strong site, and why we have such a solid reputation (don't laugh, we really do) is precisely because we are not a monolith of thought. As GM just pointed out to you: this very site carried an almost immediate rebuttal of my analysis. Doesn't that strike you as a strange thing for a bought-and-paid-for propaganda site to do? And guess what? GM and I are still friends, we can agree to disagree, and our readers get to see both sides of the silver coin. Everybody wins.

But in your world, and in much of the silverogosphere, that freedom of thought and exchange of ideas can never be allowed to pass. Dissent must be crushed. Bears are evil, and unless every word written is an attack on JPM, one is not allowed to air one's views. This is a shame. Because of such confirmation bias and group think everybody loses.

You can't see it, can you? You just can't see it. I genuinely feel sorry for you. I can't imagine what it must be like to have such limited horizons.

Yours in affection,

JdA

Kid Dynamite said...

I want everyone who thinks the Silver Ogosphere speaks the truth to revisit this classic comment thread:


http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/01/is-someone-paying-zero-hedge-to-post.html

which, if I may say so myself, is a master class in reality...

Bullion Baron said...

Duggo wrote: Only a Silver stacker knows how to have a really closed mind.

Funny you say that Duggo. I agree that there are a lot of closed minded Silver Stackers, however I have been reading a lot of FOFOA (including user comments) and other freegold related sites over the last two weeks and I can see a closed minded pattern in the freegold advocates. Many are so fixated on a particular outcome that they seem to be ignoring any opportunity that may arise in the meantime without questioning the possibility that the final destination of the monetary system may differ to their expectations. It is almost like a religion and in my opinion as dangerous as the hardcore silver crowd.

Warren James said...

As a co-author here I'm also entitled to one response to add to the excitement overnight, but past this point I immediately return to my research duties, which include helping Slow Loris Larry publish his excellent above-ground silver research (new post later today). So many elements here to pursue, though I cannot really improve on the brilliant and precise responses given by everyone above.

BJF, in what way are you a Christian without being familiar with C.S.Lewis' Screwtape Letters? Curious, but anyway ...

'For what do we owe this honor?', well, we exist because the counter argument has to exist. Whilever someone out there is boldly claiming that silver purchase in bulk is attracting 30% premium over spot because of 'shortages' or if farting bears tell us breathlessly that central banks are moving to use silver as a reserve asset - we will be in the background checking out the claims. And yes - if we find evidence to the contrary (which we did) then it is absolutely our duty to inform others. How could we not?

The unholy mix of contrary and conflicting views here is likely to hurt your head (it does mine) but I'm not certain that a systematic rebuttal of your concerns would be much value — the truth (which answers for itself, as per milamber's chosen quote above) is typically both available and accessible. Sometimes all it requires is little more effort than scrolling down the page a bit or picking up the phone to make a phone call - but since I never got any calls I have to assume that our detractors are happy with their own version of reality.

For what it's worth I plan to crack this global M.F. one fact at a time, and you can rest assured that we'll leave the place practically littered with biggest trail of easily-accessible google-searchable counter argument so that the future internet generations of financial refuges turning to precious metals can at least be informed about the real pitfalls of the machinations of social media and the actions of the big banks who ALSO operate in this space and know it better than any newb. So yes, you did in fact interpret our goals correctly.

p.s. The benton group was indeed real, but absolutely not in the fashion they portrayed.

David said...

@Warren James.

I did not see how your database does anything other than validate the book keeping of those banks. The vast majority of the manipulation is being done through the COMEX not the SLV. So I don't see what any of your mess has to do with the argument.

As for the SLV, just looking at how their contracts are worded and the CFTC reports are coming out it's clear that there is something going on. The same agencies that are net buyer's with every drop are always the first net sellers on every drop.


Anyone that has ever worked in these markets would understand what a short-squeeze is. The would also understand how the CME set's the margin rates and what effect it has.

Not sure who it is that you are actually directing this site at, but BrotherJohnF makes some valid points, and if he didn't, you never would have looked into it.

My point still stands some of your other posts on here display some rather distasteful language and certainly are not conductive to honest discussion. If I went by the email I received regarding your reply I would simply ignore this site and never return. Not sure if you delete the less worthwhile posts.

S Roche said...

@VtC et al...

Thank you for your thought provoking comments regarding what the rich are doing with silver... well, it made me wonder what the richest was doing in 2011.

I spent 0.42 seconds collecting this research that runs to 1,720,000 sources which I have condensed to the first five. It seems to me to provide an alternative to Chere Jd'A's exceptional, (well, I took exception to it), analysis the other day blaming only the silverogosphere for a silver pump and dump:

Well, King World News via ZH and a Mr J. Turk got it part right in January of 2011:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worlds-richest-man-carlos-slim-entering-silver-fray

but, ultimately not the important part:

"Slim, recently designated the world's richest man by Forbes magazine, has been selling futures contracts dated out two to three years, a spokesperson also confirmed"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/slim-silver-idUSN0410776920110504

Dated May 4th 2011 and includes an estimate that he has been selling for weeks...presumably before he dumped, he pumped?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904523/Carlos_Slim_Actively_Selling_Silver_Futures_Spokesperson

http://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-carlos-slim-jumps-on-the-sell-silver-bandwagon-2011-5

and it all left some people disillusioned and angry:

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/11/remember-the-carlos-slim-selling-silver-rumor-turns-out-hes-just-another-market-manipulating-scumbag-like-buffett/

Mr Slim is reported to be a philanthropist of note. It appears some of the bounty he reaped in this operation may have gone to good causes.

What do they say about every cloud...?

Warren James said...

@David, 'not sure who it is that you are actually directing this site at', I just stated our audience and our goals in my paragraph directly above, very clearly. Still doing some subjective cherry-picking hey? ;)

'distastefull'? To whom? Couldn't find any hate-filled posts but not quite willing to retract your own derisive distasteful comment? Hatred, no .. I once spent a year in bible college so I'm too good for that. Mocking Satire, yes .. guilty as sin.

'BrotherJohnF makes some valid points' Yes, he does, I agree completely (and second GM's statement). But he also makes no effort to investigate an alternate perspective so his analysis is onesided. Just like the commenters on his thread who derisively suspected that poor chap in the start of the video had been looking at naughty sites, failed to also understand that Google ad placement also works by IP address association, and that a number of factors may have accounted for the anomaly (like dynamic IP address or another computer in the same household).

Mess? yeah, proud of it. I have a clear framework for investigation; my point to you is that the work is difficult to debunk because I have been reasonably thorough and transparent with the ground work. It doesn't prove a lot but it is certainly improving the overall picture and bringing some things out of hiding. But I recognize the work will not forward the argument against the silver myths so much because the arguments will simply move camp, like yourself just now with shifting the focus away from SLV and onto the (less transparent) COMEX. I'm really just doing it as a hobby anyway so I'm not really affected - but I do have a big issue with being misrepresented.

David said...

@Warren James,

The site is smattering of nonsense with little real material in regards to the actual apparent focus.

My distasteful comment? Hmm, I guess the previous threads referring to supporters of the Silver Manipulation as religious zealots and cultists was all in good taste. I have the emails from the original messages still. Unlike some of your contributors I'm not personally invested in this site, and could care less what any of you think of me, but I think it should be pointed out that none of us will take your critique seriously with that sort of language. I directed the points being made by a contributors about some sort cultish behavior on this site on a previous thread. If it's unbearable for that person or the main contributors of the Blog to explain that position without resorting to the immaturity required to believe that sort of notion without actually having communicated with the people of that community, then perhaps you should clean your site up, and keep that sort of thing off the message board. Otherwise it indicates that you are not actually looking for serious inquiry or honest discussion.

I can't speak for BrotherJohnF, but i can speak from my position, so far you haven't done anything that hasn't already been done by Ted Butler, or some of the other names in this market.

I don't know who you are, or where you are in the Industry or how you are affiliated with anything we are discussing here. I can only speak from my knowledge and position. I'm an Economist in training, and I deal with International Securitization of High Value Assets. Just to give you the basis of where my knowledge is grounded.

From what I have read so far there is nothing that supports your claim here on this site that manipulation is not occurring, and I have been in these markets for quite a significant amount of time watching it actually occur.

Warren James said...

@David, fair enough. I bow to your superior argument.

You do realize don't you, that I'll keep unceremoniously tweaking your nose until someone around here acknowledges that my name is Warren James, a (real person) IT Professional working for a global corporation and that I research precious metals as a hobby?

So yes, you can probably run rings around me and the other guys perhaps. I will listen to what you have to say - in fact we're happy to publish any counter counter argument you've got - I'll even forward you an invite if you let me know your email Address. But how can we retract the historical record? It is our opinion.

So you can only hope to alter our opinion and then we can retract. If you have really studied us then you'll know that we'll change our minds in an instant, given the evidence. But the evidence for most of the silver claims is pretty lacking. I don't recall we ever claimed that manipulation did not exist, but certainly it doesn't exist in the manner in which it is popularly portrayed on many silver forums during 2011. Anyway, your call - I'm listening.

Louis Cypher said...

@David
Not that Warren needs my help here but ...
"I did not see how your database does anything other than validate the book keeping of those banks. The vast majority of the manipulation is being done through the COMEX not the SLV. So I don't see what any of your mess has to do with the argument."

I don't think you grasp the scope of what exactly Warren has done here. You (as an economist) could surely see the usefulness in tracking every bar in existence, it's physical location, when it seems to disappear, when it seems to have a twin, when it's portrayed on TV as belonging to one bank when you have it belonging to another.

Perhaps you just need to use your imagination to ask the right questions. For example just how often do SLV buy silver? How much do they rely on the hidden inventory or dark pool? Just how often do they have to go into the market place? Who is buying who is selling? Exactly what is their leverage? etc etc

As an economist you must know over time patterns will emerge. Patterns are useful in predicting the future.

If you are what you say you are then perhaps you can contribute to proving the conspiracy theories correct or not. It's not enough to say I believe, or I'm an economist so I know better. I could just as easily tell you I am the Devil so I know better. It's my metal after all :)



freegoldfuturist said...

Jeanne d'Arc said:

"...Screwtape is such a strong site, and why we have such a solid reputation (don't laugh, we really do..."

While I am not doubting that Screwtape has a solid reputation (it is well written and appears factual, I have spent hours reading the old posts and comments since I found the blog recently), I would appreciate some backup to the claim.

Thank you

Louis Cypher said...

I could give you lots of them but this one popped into my head first.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/03/26/the-drilled-gold-bars-filled-with-tungsten/

Warren James said...

I think Jeanne meant to say 'we have such a solid reputation for causing trouble'. We are hoping to collate and order all the various posts by topic so they're a bit more accessible.

p.s. Marks, I'm keen to take you up on your offer to contact Goldmoney re: the bar list thing (I assume you have legal expertise). Do you have enough info to run with that? rgds, Warren

freegoldfuturist said...

Nice link Louis, Forbes using Screwtape Files as their source.

I did notice the Forbes page only got 8,645 views, and this is a huge story in the precious metals blogosphere. The mighty Forbes is getting its butt whipped by the alternative media - many videos on my silverfuturist youtube channel got more than that, and I am a small fish in the metals blogosphere.

Warren James said...

@freegoldfuturist, when that particular Tungsten story broke, the content which originated from the ABC Bullion blog, found it's way (via cut+paste journalism) to many other locations - I found at least 20 sites before I stopped counting.

So Forbes didn't use us as the source so much as they highlighted we were the ONLY ones asking any questions about the tungsten story. I wish they did a follow-up to that one (since as you say, it's important to the industry).

milamber said...

@FGF,

Since you have read what Screwtape does and it appears you are not sure that they bring even handed analysis (Note I am saying one has to agree with what is written!), then I would rec that you set some time aside to read this thread over at Chris Martenson’s site:

Harvey Organ Podcast

The reason I bring it up, is It concerned a Harvey Organ podcast and the comments (IIRC) eventually involved (among others) Erik Townsend, Jeff Christian, Bron Suchecki & Victor the Cleaner. I think that if you take the time to work through it (300 plus comments) you might start to see things (or some people) in a completely different light.

Or maybe not.

Personally, I found it *VERY* enlightening, And even though it had nothing to do with Screwtape, it went to the heart of what I think Screwtape is all about:

To me Screwtape strives to prove with DATA, not opinion or passion, what goes on in the metals market. And then after they have the data, drawing reasoned conclusions, which generate opinions & debate, about what will unfold.

They don’t appear to approach the metals market with an agenda, but they let the data tell the story. And when the story is manipulation, then that will be the story. And when the story is “investors” getting fleeced (WILLINGLY) for a 30% premium, then that is the story.

Anyways, it’s late, but I thought that might be of interest to you.

Hth,

Milamber

milamber said...

That parenthetical should read, (I am NOT saying one has to agree!)

Milamber

Louis Cypher said...

@freegoldfuturist,
There are more outside of the MSM that pick up on what we are saying. Some attribute but most do not. It's not that important really.
Based on your reply I am guessing you have formed a negative opinion and will continue to argue the point.
That you would dismiss Forbes based on article hits is shortsighted from several points of view.
Forbes is syndicated which means that article was republished under different banners. 8000 hits or whatever doesn't cover print and syndication.
Forbes is still a respected news and editorial outlet and decision makers read it not guys who play WOW for a living. I could go on and give you other links etc but you asked a question and it was answered and as Jeanne likes to say, "I couldn't be arsed" to do more.
It's your choice whether you choose to investigate further or stick with that opinion

More to the point though, While others (like BJ and crew) seized the story and ran with it as if it were gospel not to be questioned in link bait driven articles we actually did the homework. If you don't want your views challenged BJ and the boys are the go to guys for recycling and reinforcing opinions as fact then be my guest.

We do try to keep it civil around here but if anyone shows up wearing a funny hat we will poke fun. In the best possible taste of course.

@milamber,
Thanks for the kind words.

David said...

@Warren James,

That is fair.

To be honest, I think you are wasting your time on tracking the serial numbers. I'm not sure who was telling you this manipulation was occurring in 2011 in that manner. Even GATA was speaking about the Futures Market as far I am aware of. More specifically the orders that were marked for delivery repeatedly but never delivered.

As for the serial numbers themselves I find it interesting that you would focus on those. When you stand for delivery through the SLV and GLD ETF's the metals never leave the London System, the banks that hold it will not allow it to be transfered to a non-approaved holding facility. Even China was told essentially to bugger off when they stood for delivery. HSBC had to become a member bank and open their own trading house to do so.

With that in mind, it's possible that even tracking the serials would not be evidence enough with knowing that there are likely many fake bars floating around. I wouldn't trust any bar unless it was properly assayed in front of me.

I'm not sure if you have been paying attention to the Bundesbank Drama lately. They've asked JPM for their gold three times now, and JPM has not been able to deliver.


As to your offer to converse on this, no thanks I have enough of a headache dealing with the Fed's mess. I'm a Silver/Gold Buyer and just happened to have caught BJF's video covering you guys so came to see what he was on about. I think you guy's are properly motivated, but on the wrong track. It's not about the serial numbers but the volume, and the failures to deliver.

victorthecleaner said...


I'm not sure if you have been paying attention to the Bundesbank Drama lately. They've asked JPM for their gold three times now, and JPM has not been able to deliver.

Right. I actually work for the JPM bullion desk. We fleeced the BuBa only for 1500 tonnes. Jamie locked half of it up in his basement, but as I understand, this place is still flooded. Will have to wipe all the mud off these nice and shiny bars. Will do that personally - obsessive compulsive disorder.

As his basement was already full with these 750 tonnes (and the house had already sunk in by a few inches and started to tilt), we had to find another solution for the remaining 750 tonnes. That's a secret though, and I cannot disclose the location in a pubic forum such as this one.

But fleecing the BuBa was only child's play - we just took it and told them they have to apply for delivery in writing. Then sent them some 1500 pages of small print from our lawyers - must still be busy reading the stuff. Haven't applied yet.

We also took the full 8100 tonnes from Fort Knox and West Point. That was more difficult. We had to get in during the night and swapped the gold with gold plated tungsten. Since Jamie's basement was already full and the Feds might eventually find us out and try to hunt us down, Blythe suggested to hire one of these Russian Soyuz missions and put a few tons of it into the orbit. This way, the U.S. cannot retrieve the gold any longer because the Space Shuttle is no longer in operation.

Unfortunately, the Russians can take only 12 tonnes at a time, and so we are still left with more than 8000 tonnes that we need to get out of the country.

I suggested North Korea because nobody would suspect it's there. Unfortunately, Blythe doesn't like the food there...

Yeah. That's the internet. Dissipates an almost arbitrary amount of entropy.

Victor

Michael H said...

David,

As for the serial numbers themselves I find it interesting that you would focus on those. When you stand for delivery through the SLV and GLD ETF's the metals never leave the London System, the banks that hold it will not allow it to be transfered to a non-approaved holding facility. Even China was told essentially to bugger off when they stood for delivery. HSBC had to become a member bank and open their own trading house to do so.

Source please?

Perhaps you didn't bother to read this post:

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/09/slv-database-4.html

The punchline, as per Bron, is "SLV bars found in Bullionvault and Goldmoney!".

Are Bullionvault and Goldmoney "in the system"?

There are also bars that get shipped to the Perth Mint. Is that "in the system"?

freegoldfuturist said...

Louis said:
"Based on your reply I am guessing you have formed a negative opinion and will continue to argue the point. That you would dismiss Forbes based on article hits is shortsighted from several points of view."

Huh? Why would I spend several hours reading Screwtape posts if I had formed a negative opinion? Did you miss the part where I said Screwtape is well written and appears factual? Did I ever dismiss Forbes? I simply commented on the number of views of the article.

Michael H said...

victor,

That corroborates my late friend's story. He worked at JPM for 10 years, and was using a USB drive hidden in his mop to gather data in preparation for blowing the whistle.

Unfortunately, he had a tragic accident in April 2011 and fell down an open elevator shaft. The mop was never recovered.

Louis Cypher said...

@freegoldfuturist,
My apologies for misiinterpreting your tone.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

@freegoldfuturist,

I knew what you meant ;-) Don't worry about Louis: we always bring him out as a big gun when we're under attack. Trouble is, he's like a Rottweiler - once he starts, he can't stop. I'll never forget the time when he successfully disembowelled a burglar at Screwtape Mansions, but then disgraced himself by throwing GM's great-aunt Tabathika out of the clock tower in celebration. But he's a big softy, really...

@milamber: that was very nice of you: thanks.

@Michael H: it's comments like that which make me wish we had a big yellow hat tip system around here... Piss funny :-)

victorthecleaner said...


Michael H,

I am very sorry to hear this, but you will understand that security is our first priority.

When we did the job at Jamie's house, I was actually assigned the job of driving the getaway fork-lift. Unfortunately, privately I drive only my Aston Martin, and so I wasn't used to such a bulky machine and hit a few cars that were parked on that road that leads to the Hamptons.

This Maguire person was apparently in one of these cars (with some hookers from the Bronx). But when he noticed he got hit by a fork-lift and was wondering what we were up to, Jamie was quick and told him we had taken all the COMEX silver because he wanted some additional 1000oz bars as door stoppers for his mansion.

Jamie also now feeds Maguire information about our next price raids. Luckily, it was pitch dark, and Maguire still believes it was the silver and he has no clue it was rather the German gold. Whew.

Victor

Michael H said...

Par for the course for a callous, EVIL banker. I am talking of loss of human life and you go on and on about security. Thankfully, we have upstanding characters like Maguire who work hard to tell us the truth of what is going on, due to his altruistic sense of goodwill for the common person and his strident desire to afford the classier hookers from Manhattan.

But I wouldn't gloat quite yet if I were you. You may have pulled the wool over Maguire's eyes, but the Bundesbank is not so easily fooled.

My best source of solid reliable gold information (who only talks to little-known PM bloggers who don't hyperventilate and over-inflate his claims, to better preserve his credibility) told me that the Bundesbank is on to your latest plan of using HAARP to genereate and guide hurricane Sandy to NYC, to create a cover for the heist you described.

As told in the New York Times, "HAARP will zap the upper atmosphere with a focused and steerable electromagnetic beam" which can cause "hurricanes, drought, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, lightning, tsunamis, acne, diarrhea, constipation, and Hemorrhoids."

Well, I hope you had fun because your little ruse is up. My best, most credible, most trustworty source, who has 62 year experience in the precious metals industry and was vetted by the Timbuktu Trader himself, tells me that as soon as the waters reside, the Bundesbank will EXPLODE THE GOLD PRICE TO THE UPSIDE AND CAUSE JPMs NAKED SHORTS TO WASH OUT TO SEA, CAUSING MUCH CONSTERNATION TO THOSE SWIMMING NEARBY.

GM Jenkins said...

Trouble is, he's like a Rottweiler - once he starts, he can't stop. I'll never forget the time when he successfully disembowelled a burglar at Screwtape Mansions, but then disgraced himself by throwing GM's great-aunt Tabathika out of the clock tower in celebration.

Ah, poor old Auntie Tabs. But in fairness to Louis, every man's got a breaking point. Truth be told, she had this perfectly intolerable habit of walking around with a Lysol bottle spraying everything in sight whenever we'd return from a long night at the Lucky Devil Lounge with some new friends. Then there were her aggressively loud coughs whenever we'd kick back with our Ser Jacopos and fire up some fine hashberry. Or the way she'd say "Just wait till your father comes home!" every time we'd pull out the Ottoman knee-pistol from my antique rifle collection and test its accuracy on the exotic fauna in the Screwtape menagerie.

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Thanks for the inside info, guys... It all makes SO much sense.

Haha, love it.

P.S.

Don't mess with Lucifer

Crank it

Striving Consistency said...

@ milamber

1000 thanks for the link to the harvey organ podcast comments - what a treasure trove of great discussion and information!

very much appreciated

Michael H said...

Jeanne d'Arc,

Thanks for the compliment, but unfortunately I cannot take anything that you or anyone else on this site says seriously anymore, since that vicious personal attack made against myself by an unknown person on an unspecified previous thread.

I cannot go into details of said vicious attack or I would spoil the vagueness of this complaint, but suffice to say that it cast a pall over the entire Screwtape Files site and all but confirms the veracity of the claim that 60 days of silver prices above $36 will cause billions of losses for JPM.

Michael H said...

/SleepingVillage/,

If you like the information presented here, keep in mind that this is only a ‘taste test’ of what is available to my paid subscribers. My frequent use of anonymous sources, complete lack of accountability for massively blown calls, and judicious use of ALL CAPS all but guarantees* that my subscribers will destroy the evil banking cartel, become filthy rich**, and restore their waning libidos to their previous glory***.

* DISCLAIMER: No implicit or explicit guarantees will be honored on this product.

** DISCLAIMER: Content presented for purposes of entertainment and for the enrichment of the newsletter proprietor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

*** This statement has not been evaluated by the FDA or the SEC.

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Sir,

OMG! Where do I sign up? I've spent much of my evil fiat on the people's money, god-given silver! Would you consider payment in this ultimate form of currency? I have shit loads....

Do you think you could maybe restore my wife's libido? Ever since I started buying silver, she's stopped sleeping in the same bed as me:(

Michael H said...

/SleepingVillage/,

I have it from several authoritative sources that your wife's libido is already a force of nature.

S Roche said...

OK, OK...just before the group-think here takes hold in regard to the loopy group-think of the loopier precious metals advocates I want to remind everyone of the immortal words of one Heinz Kissinger "Even a paranoid has real enemies"*...

Whilst it is valuable to point out the follies of these regurgitating circle-jerkers in precious metals it does no one any good to imagine that because some claims are poorly made, or embellished, that there is no substance to them.

In support of this I give you Izabella Kaminska describing S.O.P. in commodities: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2011/10/21/708441/the-power-of-the-dark-inventory/

and Barrick Gold: http://www.gata.org/files/BarrickConfessionMotionToDismiss.pdf

and Barclays just last week: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204712904578090053851107918.html showing their style. (Yes, not precious metals but just one of hundreds of examples of large banks malfeasance for profit...what, they do this in all other markets but not precious metals?)

This is the point I tried to make in the above-linked marathon comments section to a Harvey Organ interview and which I think is a valid point, worth making here.

SR

*Which he stole from Golda Meir http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/g/golda_meir_2.html

S Roche said...

*reportedly

S Roche said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/information-sources/

Worth a read for students and traders...