Chart dump 9/23

Hello friends, just landed in Grindelwald. I'm somehow getting reception on my iPad, so I have a minute to share some charts with you:

With September almost in the books, here's a chart of monthly closing prices:

 The important 144-day MA was cleared, but there's resistance getting back into the 4 year channel
 The envelopes of the 144-day MA might suggest buying opportunities should a sell-off occur this week
But the fact that the 5% envelope of the 20-day EMA was hit twice, and a sell-off hasn't yet occurred tells me we have room to climb. I'm definitely not shorting anything here, though I've lightened up.
 The gold in euros charts show a new all time high. Will it keep climbing, or perhaps the Enemies of the Good will paint a double top? The problem with the double top scenario is that the blue trend line would have to be violated, and it has been very strong support for years.
 The $GOLD:$CRB chart, which I interpret as a chart of gold's safe haven component, is at critical resistance again.

The silver weekly looks good, though we're right at the top of a wide trading range. Note the 34- and 55-week MAs are about to cross, which has been bullish in the past.
 The descending white line on the gold:silver ratio chart held, and it's looked good since:

Here's the chart from my last post in August, when the $SPX:GDXJ ratio was right at the bottom of the ascending channel (yellow). It has since fallen through the 50-day MA.
But the RSI on the ^HUI is at an all-time high. The last time it was here, back in 2002, gold stocks quickly lost an even greater percentage of their value than what occurred over the past year. Are things different this time? Gold stocks are due for a correction, but perhaps it will be in the context of an overall equity sell-off.


Warren James said...

Go go, gold in Euros. I knew Bernanke wouldn't let me down.

Funny thing tonight, watched 'The Italian Job' (the modern remake). Their hoist was about 200+ bars and they whoop and cry because it's worth $27 million dollars.

I calculated it (yes, I'm sad) and the same hoard today would be worth about $145 million (the gold price in the film calculated roughly to $345/oz).

Makes me wonder how people can look at that price action and not ask what is going on with our monetary world.

Nice to see you back GM.

GM Jenkins said...

Good to be back Warren. If you've never taken a ride on the trans-atlantic jet stream in a hot air balloon wearing nothing but a flame-retardant jockstrap, you really haven't lived!

Funny point about the Italian Job ... f you think about it, it's the un-ironic equivalent of Dr Evil's "one million dollars" joke.

I'm more bullish than i probably should be ... I'm pretty heavily long here, let's see what happens.