Recent: Dancing on Wynter Bentons Grave (Nov 2011) and Wynter Benton Report Card Semester 2 (Sep 2011)
For those quick to write the obituary of the Wynter Benton myth, here are some condensed claims (which are on public record!) you can refer to, specifically in relation to some up-coming dates. I am no trader but my day job is to look for patterns in data and analyze structure. The Wynter Benton Group in their last messages started to get more serious in their attempt to get noticed, and started giving some specifics about their plans. Here are the main ones … put here for easy reference and close scrutiny. I too will call it a day on the WB thing at the point where I am sufficiently satisfied that the claims are discredited (so far, not the case).
Direct Claim: 14-Feb-2011 for middle-of-March silver price
"Ecomm, since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat.
That is our standard definition for a win, a lost, and a draw versus Blythe."
So … let’s take the ‘deadline’ to mean close on Tuesday 15th March. I also want to point out that this claim was made when the silver price was hovering ~$30 and was still a dollar below the Dec-2010 highs (having just experienced the substantial January correction). Also note: Three weeks prior, the same wynter_benton was a bit more bullish, with this statement: “Come March 1st the price of paper silver will be over $40 and even that might not stop the raid that is being planned” 21-Jan-2011, this would appear as a weakness in validity (i.e. technically they revised their estimate) although to read the context, this statement appears quickly at the last part of a reply (i.e. was written as an afterthought) and seems to reinforce only that they were intent on taking delivery of ‘cheap’ physical silver regardless of the price (this $40 price call occurred around the start of Turd’s Bottom).
Other Claim about March 1st: (my paraphrase) Comex won’t default just yet (why kill the ‘golden goose’) but they would certainly be doing a ‘raid’ on all their silver at such a ‘cheap’ price to put even more pressure on later months. They are also interested in playing the premium game.
Quotes from wynter_benton:
- “How will this end?” “When the comex blows up on its own. We will be accepting hefty cash premiums to let them continue the game.” 08-Feb-2011
- “We are still going to raid the Comex on Mar 1 come hell or highwater.” 09-Feb-2011
- “No matter what Comex "reports", we will be standing for delivery for physical silver and will be encouraging all our contacts to do the same” 17-Feb-2011
- My name is Warren I am a guest contributor to Mr Louis Cypher’s blog. I also have a freaky avatar which none of you will be able to guess what it is unless you have seen the picture in its original context. My disclaimer/foundation for my writing is here.
- Their foundation plan appears to have two prongs to it: drain physical silver and put pressure on the shorts to capitulate. When they say ‘raid the Comex’ I understand this to mean that they will grab all their physical silver from them and then use that to weaken them the following month. In their posts they talk happily about Blythe running around like a madwoman collecting up physical silver to dilute the effect of the raid, which they will then happily purchase from her. From everything I can see; this is more or less happening ... i.e. the Comex is still having to deliver quite a lot of silver right about now, and they are under pricing pressure. Again I'm no trader so feel free to set me straight on these matters (e.g. can someone give a comparison of this month's contract deliveries vs. previous March months?)
- Leading on from this, all the latest open interest numbers and metal reports are being discussed very well by Mr. Harvey and Mr. SilverGoldSilver, you would do very well to check their sites for lots of juicy up-to-date, professional, technical and profane details. My only question (to anyone) – is it possible for a last-minute stand-for-delivery? e.g. Monday 28th Feb? This statement from wynter_benton: "... our group will be buying the bulk of the contracts as the delivery date approaches so neither Blythe nor the Comex will have any idea what hit them." 15-Feb-2011
- If the WB group gets done in any fashion for silver market manipulation then this would be the greatest double irony in the history of the world and I will laugh a bitter laugh. To this end I hope they are taking as many precautions as they can to cover themselves. Plausible deniability, etc.
A story based on falsehood comes undone, but a story based on truth can bear large amounts of scrutiny. For me, the John Titor myth was disproven by the objective claim that 2004 was the last Olympic Games held – because since then we have had the 2008 games in China. [That was curious enough, since he may have discounted or even detested the Chinese holding the games, or even mentioned it to make a point]. Back to Wynter Benton, we here at Screwtape Files are watching and waiting. I don't think these date deadlines have passed just yet. I also don't think the claims were vague. Put the $33-$37 mid march price call in context of when the post was made.