**With due apologies to our many millions of visitors globally, I'm not letting this one go. I inverted the ratio from my previous post, because it makes more sense to me this way.
What's the value of putting your money into a bond, if you measure value in ounces of silver?
Today, the yield on a 10 yr treasury note rose to 3.18, meaning if you have $100 lying around, you can basically make a risk-free $3.18. But how many ounces of silver can you buy with your guaranteed winnings? You can't even buy a 1/10th ounce coin. Ten years ago, putting $100 into a 10 yr treasury note would've gotten you a silver eagle.
So, to review, on September 11, 2001, you could've bought 1.0 ounce of silver. On September 11, 2010, you could buy only 0.14 ounce. That's a steady decline of 20% a year. But September 2010 is when the decade long trend appears to have ended (and gotten worse).
Until then, look at how well the black trend lines delimit the value of your yield, measured in silver. The few times the ratio escaped the black lines, it fell violently back into the channel... until Turd's Bottom (Jan 26, 2011) when the ratio notably refused to re-enter.
Since then, the ratio appears to be bounded by a significantly steeper rate of descent (see purple dotted lines).
For our many loyal paying subscribers, I will give you actionable advice based on this chart that will earn you millions, guaranteed. For everybody else, I will offer the prediction that the ratio will either find resistance at the purple dotted line, or if that fails, the nearest black line, or if that fails (probably in a scenario that proves deflationists right), the top black line. I don't see it hitting the blue line again before that, though.
*However, soon, the blue line will go through 0. Which means that if/when the ratio hits the blue line again, you'll be able to buy a grand total of 0 ounces of silver for your dollars earned from investing in US bonds.
**A commenter astutely points out: "You won't have the problem of hitting the zero line (at least, not right away) if you use charting paper that has multiple log cycles on the vertical axis instead of just one." (Thank you, Don). So, I guess what I called the zero line here is really 0.05, and you can keep going an equal distance down on the y-axis to 0.025, 0.0125, 0.0063, ... forever (i.e. this shitshow has a ways to go yet). And seeing as the y-axis is ounces of silver, soon your yield will buy you the shavings from a 1964 dime. (At which point Japan will announce another record purchase of treasuries, like yesterday.)